As the first anniversary of Georgia's brief war with Russia last August approaches, recent gun fires and mortars across the border between Georgia and its breakaway region of South Ossetia stir up tensions.
Despite an exchange of accusations and even threats from Moscow to "respond appropriately if Georgia launches further aggression," analysts believe that massive military operation will probably not recur in the South Caucasus.
RUSSIA, S. OSSETIA ON HIGH ALERT
Facing the first anniversary of the five-day war last August, Russia and South Ossetia have both adopted a series of measures, reportedly to "ensure regional security."
Russia and Georgia fought the war last summer, when Georgia attacked South Ossetia to retake the renegade region that borders Russia. In response, Moscow sent in troops to drive Georgian forces out the region.
Russia recognized South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states two weeks after the conflict ended.
Over the past week South Ossetian authorities have more than once said that it was attacked by Georgian mortars.
The regional leader Eduard Kokoity last Thursday urged Georgia to return a valley along Georgia's northeast border, claiming its historical ownership.
The Russian Defense Ministry said in a statement last Saturday that "in case of further provocations threatening the republic's population and the Russian military contingent stationed in South Ossetia, the ministry retains the right to use all available means and forces to defend the nationals of South Ossetia and Russian servicemen."
Subsequently, Russia put its troops and border guards deployed in South Ossetia on increased alert, and kicked off a military exercise in the region on Monday night.
Meanwhile South Ossetia closed its administrative border with Georgia from Tuesday midnight, saying the closure was aimed at "guarding against further provocations from the Georgian side."
Local analysts said the series of measures reflected that at such a sensitive time, Russia and South Ossetia intended to ensure that no further adventurous aggression was taken by the Georgian side, since the Western-backed country still regarded Russia as its adversary and the two breakaway regions as its own territory.
Russia also intended to enhance security in the border area between Georgia and South Ossetia, as Georgia has not promised to give up use of violence in the conflict zone.
The ongoing military cooperation between Georgia and the United States, as well as the arms shipment to Georgia from Ukraine and other countries, have also remained major concerns of Russia.
South Ossetian authorities nonetheless aimed to solidify its status as a sovereign state, said analysts. So far only Nicaragua has followed Russia's lead in recognizing the two regions as independent states.
