Affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, it’s not easy for the global economy to recover and improve within just half a year. When China has achieved phased results in containing the disease at home, a lot of observers have started to cast their eyes on China, wondering whether the improving Chinese economy could lead the global economy toward growth.
China acted as the engine of the global economy during the 2008 financial crisis. Supported by the macroeconomic policies, the country bought huge quantities of raw materials and goods from foreign countries, effectively spurring the growth of the global economy.
China’s current economic aggregate is much bigger than before. Back in 2008 when the country played a major role, its economy accounted for only a small share of the global total. Now, with a larger economy, the country theoretically has a stronger capability to drive global economic growth.
Objectively speaking, China is likely to register a positive economic growth this year, and the growth will be one of the fastest among major economies. However, it’s uncertain whether the Chinese economy could drive the global economy forward as it did in 2008. This is not because China is not willing or able to do so, but because the changing global situation has hindered the country from playing its due role.
The reason why the global economy was able to walk out of the shadow of the 2008 financial crisis in a relatively short period of time was that countries were highly coordinated under the then global policies. At that time, all economies worked together to form a joint policy force.
However, major economies are now acting on their own free will; some are even undermining the work of others. When countries fail to act in a coordinated manner, no substantial progress can be achieved.
The chaotic way of some countries in responding to the pandemic has also hindered China's role. Unlike the 2008 financial crisis, which was mainly caused by problems with economic fundamentals, this economic turmoil was triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic.
China and other countries have promoted economic growth under the premise that the pandemic has already been controlled. However, as the epidemic situation in some large economies is still deteriorating, the foundation for promoting global economic development doesn’t exist.
The current international political situation has changed dramatically from that during the financial crisis. However, some countries are not concerned about whether China could drive global economic growth, or even whether the global economy is recovering. Instead, they frequently confront China on geopolitics, ideology and international order.
They have imposed malicious restrictions on Chinese investment, suppressed trade with China, restricted scientific and technological exchanges, and launched unwarranted countermeasures on issues concerning Hong Kong and Xinjiang. All of these have hindered China’s role as an economic engine and slowed the economic growth of relevant countries.
Because of the abovementioned reasons, it may not be realistic to expect China to drive the global economic recovery as it did in 2008. China must first ensure the stable development of its own economy, and based on this, it will achieve prosperity with some economies that are willing to develop together.
The latest statistics show that China's imports and exports achieved growth in June. Among them, China-U.S. trade has dropped sharply, China-Europe trade declined slightly and China-ASEAN trade grew significantly.
Whether China can still become the locomotive of the global economy depends on whether other countries can focus on the economy itself and trust and choose to meet China halfway.
The author is deputy director of the Center for American Studies, Fudan University
