The massacre of more than 100 civilians in the village of Houla in Syria on Friday should be strongly condemned by all. The perpetrators of the atrocity are still unknown, but one thing is certain: the ceasefire situation has been very volatile since the Syrian government and the opposition agreed to halt the violence and start a credible process of political dialogue according to the six-point plan proposed by UN special envoy Kofi Annan.
On May 4, the spokesman for Annan said the Syrian peace process is on track. However, talks between the government and the opposition have not yet been launched and violent incidents in violation of the ceasefire agreement are increasing, with both the Syrian government and the opposition blaming the other for the violence. Many observers now worry that Annan's ceasefire plan might come to an untimely end.
There is no doubt that Annan's six-point peace proposal is the only way to achieve a political solution to the Syrian crisis. Annan's arduous diplomatic mediation for Syria opened a "window of opportunity for national reconciliation", so the Syrian government and the opposition must observe the ceasefire and show their political wisdom and courage by starting negotiations.
Of course, this will be a difficult process, because there are enormous obstacles to be overcome if the government and the opposition are to turn the vague principles of the six-point proposal into a practicable ceasefire agreement, and then into a specific political solution.
First, the purposes of the Syrian government and the opposition are fundamentally irreconcilable and their confrontation has become a do-or-die struggle. President Bashar al-Assad will never hand over power submissively. He is determined to remain in power and he still has the military strength. He will not tolerate the opposition unlimitedly, nor make a fundamental compromise.
The opposition has proved incapable of forcing Bashar to step down, but it too is refusing to compromise, even though it lacks powerful bargaining chips because of the huge difference in military strength.
Second, both the Syrian government and the opposition have adopted a two-pronged approach. On the one hand, the parties have to engage in the negotiations; on the other hand they are actively preparing for combat. Though the Syrian opposition groups accepted Annan's mediation program, they are not satisfied with the plan as they believe that the plan did not urge Bashar to step down.
The opposition is still seeking to overthrow Bashar and has repeatedly said that they will never give up. For this reason, the Syrian crisis is far from over.
Third, the basic conditions for conducting negotiations are not available. The opposition inside Syria have expressed their willingness to talk with the government without any preconditions, but opposition groups outside Syria have not responded in a similar vein. Also there is no acceptable leadership on behalf of the opposition to negotiate with the government. All in all, the prospects for negotiations do not look promising.
The government's bottom line is to remain in power and carry out reforms in the country. The opposition has rejected the reform program, and they want to follow the example of Libya's opposition and seize power.
Obviously, the time is not ripe for negotiations. Both sides lack the sincerity and trust necessary to begin negotiations. The government still has the initiative and advantage in future negotiations, while the opposition is fragmented both politically and militarily. As long as the opposition refuses to accept the government's arrangements, and refuses to cooperate with the government, there is little chance of negotiations being held.
Fourth, after being frustrated in overthrowing the Bashar government, the West and some Arab countries continue to support the opposition. They express their support for Annan's six-point plan, but have been supporting the opposition on the sly with non-military assistance. The West has not abandoned their intention of forcing Bashar to step down. On Apr 27, the United States threatened that if Syria failed to implement Annan's peace plan, it will again submit the Syrian issue to the UN Security Council. Britain said that if the government does not comply with the ceasefire agreement it will increase support for the opposition. The future of Syria is still fraught with dangers and uncertainties.
Therefore, there is little reason to be optimistic about an end to the violence in Syria. Annan's mediation is still faced with the possibility of failure.
Without a strong foreign military intervention, the opposition will not be able to overthrow Bashar's government as it does not have the strength. Meanwhile, violent clashes will continue threatening to further deteriorate the situation.
