Emerging economies in Asia-Pacific will continue to lead global economic growth this year, and the total scale of China’s imports within the next five years is expected to exceed 9 trillion U.S. dollars, Pei Changhong, director of Economic Research Institute of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences forecasts.
After the international financial crisis, the economic globalization trend is not reversed. According to the United Nations forecast, global economic growth this year is estimated to be 2.6 percent, and international trade growth about 5.8 percent. However, the international direct investment flows have fundamentally changed post-financial crisis, from previously mainly to developed economies to developing economies, with a focus on emerging markets.
The IMF believes that the economic growth in the Asia-Pacific region may reach 5.5 percent this year; in particular, growth rates for Asian emerging economies will be 7.3 percent and 7.8 percent in 2012 and 2013 respectively. China’s growth rate will reach 8.2 percent and 8.8 percent respectively. Pei predicted that the Chinese economy as a whole is in a favorable situation and its economic growth this year may still exceed 8.5 percent.
Actively expanding imports is an important means for China to maintain economic growth. China's total imports last year reached 1.74 trillion U.S. dollars, with 75 percent from the Asia-Pacific region.
"China will consolidate its position of the world's manufacturing center, maintain a certain level of export growth, and seek to establish its international competitiveness by exporting more goods to the global market." Pei believes that China will build its ability of global resources disposition through large-scale imports, which is also an important manifestation of international competitiveness.
